A World Order in Flux: Why the U.S.-Japan Alliance Must Adapt

By mid-2025, the global landscape has shifted dramatically. Strategic ambiguity in U.S. foreign policy, increasing Chinese assertiveness, and renewed regional conflict have called into question the resilience of longstanding alliances. From Iran’s destabilizing activities to North Korea’s accelerating weapons program, flashpoints are proliferating. At the same time, economic interdependence—once viewed as a stabilizer—is now a source of risk. Against this backdrop, experts across the Indo-Pacific and Washington are calling for a recalibration of the U.S.-Japan relationship—one that acknowledges changing power dynamics while reinforcing shared strategic interests.

Trump 2.0: A Return to Transactionalism Without Strategic Clarity

With the return of the Trump administration, global diplomacy is once again being reshaped. “America First” returns with sharper edges, but strategic clarity remains elusive. Hence, a recent forum convened prominent voices to examine the shifting geopolitical landscape. Among the speakers were former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, former U.S. National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger, and Shotaro Yachi Akiba, former National Security Advisor of Japan. They observed that, so far, the second Trump administration has not outlined a clear or coordinated strategy for the Indo-Pacific region.

While the administration’s actions reflect continuity on some fronts—such as skepticism toward China and an emphasis on burden-sharing—much of its foreign policy remains reactive. Pottinger characterized Trump’s doctrine as one guided by “Reciprocity, Reindustrialization, and Risk-Reduction” rather than traditional isolationism or globalism. In today’s post-rules-based environment, U.S. foreign policy is increasingly transactional—leaving allies like Japan to navigate shifting priorities with measured, strategic patience. Consequently, in this post-rules-based environment, U.S. foreign policy has taken on a more transactional character—leaving allies like Japan to navigate shifting priorities with measured, strategic patience. This shift in expectations reflects a broader change in how alliances are being managed. It’s like renewing a long-standing friendship where, suddenly, every favor is tracked and tallied—as if past trust no longer counts without a receipt.

Iran Strikes Highlight Tactical Resolve, but Strategic Isolation

In response to U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites earlier this year, Campbell and Pottinger emphasized the legitimacy of the action but voiced concern over the lack of allied consultation. Pottinger recounted Iran’s decades-long history of proxy violence, including support for attacks on U.S. forces and assassination attempts on American citizens, including former President Trump. While the strikes may have been militarily justified, Campbell underscored that effective strategy demands coordination with key partners like Japan and Australia. Without it, he warned, the U.S. risks isolating itself at a time when collective legitimacy is crucial. It’s a bit like one firefighter rushing into a burning building alone—potentially heroic in the moment, but risking long-term support when the fire spreads beyond control.

Dealing with China: Confrontation Without Complete Separation

Pottinger outlined a hardening U.S. posture toward China, citing economic exploitation, fentanyl exports, and military escalation as key triggers. He reiterated that President Trump views China’s entry into the WTO as a historic strategic error and sees current trade imbalances as proof of systemic unfairness. However, Campbell pointed out that despite the rhetoric of “decoupling,” the U.S. remains deeply reliant on China for rare earths, electronics, and manufacturing. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to shift supply chains away from China. Both experts agreed that the U.S. must work closely with allies like Japan to manage vulnerabilities and counterbalance China’s dominance in key technologies such as 5G, AI, and semiconductors. Think of it like trying to move out of a shared apartment with someone you no longer trust—only to find your phone charger, router, and half your wardrobe still belong to them.

Japan’s Role: From Ally to Strategic Peer

The discussion emphasized Japan’s growing significance not just as a U.S. ally, but as a co-leader in regional stability. Campbell described Japan as “indispensable” to American interests in the Indo-Pacific, citing its increased defense spending, technological contributions, and diplomatic alignment. Pottinger added that President Trump spoke more frequently with Japanese Prime Ministers than any other world leaders, underscoring Japan’s central role in issues ranging from North Korea to Indo-Pacific economic frameworks. Shotaro Yachi (Akiba), former National Security Adviser to Japan, emphasized that while Japan remains committed to the alliance, it must also safeguard its own strategic autonomy in a rapidly changing regional order. It’s no longer a mentor-mentee relationship—it’s more like seasoned business partners who’ve learned to lead a joint venture rather than one carrying the other.

Trade and Tariffs: Economic Convergence Meets Political Friction

Despite deep economic integration, Japan remains under pressure to reduce trade surpluses and meet new defense-spending thresholds. Pottinger explained that Trump measures alliance strength in part by economic metrics—specifically trade deficits and defense contributions as a percentage of GDP. Akiba acknowledged this political reality, but urged the U.S. to recognize Japan’s extensive investment in American manufacturing and job creation. Campbell argued that bilateral negotiations should expand beyond tariffs and auto parts to reflect the full scope of U.S.-Japan cooperation, including innovation, supply chain security, and digital services. In practical terms, it’s similar to two partners who’ve invested heavily in a shared project—one now focused on dividing monthly costs, while the other emphasizes the value of long-term contributions already made.

WTO Fatigue and the Search for New Trade Frameworks

As skepticism about multilateral trade mechanisms deepens, both Campbell and Pottinger questioned the long-term viability of the WTO. Citing China’s disregard for rule-of-law principles and market transparency, they advocated for new frameworks built around like-minded democracies. Pottinger proposed that the U.S. begin with a core of G7 nations or mutual defense treaty allies to establish enforceable digital and industrial trade norms. Campbell acknowledged domestic political resistance to any broad trade pacts, referencing the controversy surrounding TPP. Nevertheless, he and Akiba agreed that modular, trust-based trade frameworks—especially those linked to digital economies—represent the most viable path forward, and that Japan could play a key convening role. Together, they emphasized that future trade architecture will likely depend on smaller, values-aligned coalitions capable of advancing pragmatic and enforceable economic rules—where Japan is well positioned to lead.

Transparency, Consensus, and the Domestic Front: From Security Pact to Strategic Platform

Both Japanese and American speakers stressed that the alliance cannot thrive on elite coordination alone. Public understanding and domestic political support are increasingly essential, especially as governments adjust military budgets, revise trade terms, and manage supply chain policies. Akiba underscored the importance of transparent communication between the Japanese government and its citizens, particularly when national interests intersect with alliance obligations. Campbell echoed this point, warning that alliances can weaken when leaders fail to explain their purpose clearly to voters. As policy shifts become more contentious, sustaining bipartisan and public support will be critical for the alliance’s long-term credibility.

Across security, economics, and technology, the U.S.-Japan relationship is evolving beyond its Cold War-era foundations. As Campbell put it, the alliance must now serve as a platform for coordinated global action, not merely a regional security guarantee. With the U.S. partially retreating from its traditional role as an aid provider and global regulator, Japan has stepped forward—investing in global health, development, and regional stability. Pottinger emphasized that Japan already meets the criteria Trump values most: reciprocity, reliability, and responsibility. Moving forward, both countries must deepen cooperation not only to manage shared threats, but to shape the norms and rules of a multipolar world. The alliance is no longer just a safety net—it’s a launchpad for joint leadership in an increasingly leaderless world.

Related posts:

Drug Promotion, Nonprescription Pathways, and Advanced Manufacturing: FDA’s Key Focus Areas in 2024 and What’s Next for 2025 CDMO Samsung Bio Secures Record $1.24 Billion Biopharma Manufacturing Contract, Raising Total 2024 Deal Value to Over $3.3 Billion Biotech on the Ballot: How the U.S. Presidential Election Puts Industry Policy to the Test U.S. Government and Private Sector Unite to Build a Resilient Biomanufacturing Base

Author

Bernice Lottering