Can New GLP-1 Contenders Disrupt the Weight-Loss Giants, Lilly and Novo, in the Battle for Market Dominance?
New public and private entrants are emerging to challenge the leading positions of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) in the GLP-1 market. This potential $200 billion market is projected to see 68% of sales from weight loss indications by 2031. Initially approved for diabetes, GLP-1 drugs are now gaining new indications, including obesity. These medications slow the movement of food from the stomach, aiding in weight management. Due to their first-mover advantages and innovation with next-generation products, Novo and Lilly are expected to retain nearly 70% of the total market by 2031.
Emerging Competitors: Roche, Amgen, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca Poised to Disrupt the Obesity Drug Market
In the obesity drug landscape, GLP-1 agonists from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate, together accounting for 68% of weight-loss drug sales. However, new players are gearing up to challenge their dominance. According to a report by Morningstar, biopharma firms like Roche, Amgen, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca are developing their own obesity medications. Analysts predict that by 2029, 16 new drugs will enter the market, contributing an additional $70 billion to the GLP-1 segment by 2031. This influx of products signals intensified competition in the obesity drug space.
These emerging competitors are differentiating their strategies by focusing on enhanced efficacy, aiming for faster and more effective weight loss than current treatments. Additionally, they are improving gastrointestinal tolerability to reduce side effects such as nausea. Convenience is another major factor, with firms working on more patient-friendly dosing options, like oral tablets or monthly injections. Ensuring a reliable drug supply will also be crucial for these companies to meet growing demand and avoid shortages. These innovations could significantly challenge Novo and Lilly’s market dominance.
Emerging Alternatives: New Obesity Drugs Expected by 2029 to Challenge Wegovy and Zepbound
Several pharmaceutical companies advance obesity treatments with significant upcoming catalysts. Eli Lilly has its drug Zepbound approved. It expects a head-to-head (H2H) comparison against Wegovy in 2024. Eli Lilly also has Retatrutide in Phase 3, expected in 2026. Orforglipron is in Phase 3, with results expected in 2025. Bimagrumab is in Phase 2, with data expected in the second half of 2024. Eloralintide is in Phase 2, anticipated in 2025. Mazdutide is in Phase 3, with a higher 9 mg dose expected in 2025.
Novo Nordisk has Wegovy approved and plans a high-dose version for Q4 2024. The company expects additional indications like MASH in 2024 and Alzheimer’s in 2025. Rybelsus 50 mg will launch in the EU in 2025. Novo’s other drugs include Cagrisema in Phase 3. Initial studies will start in Q4 2024, with a H2H comparison with Zepbound in 2025. Oral Amycretin is in Phase 1, with a subcutaneous version expected in 2025. Monlunabant is in Phase 2b, starting in 2025.
Altimmune progresses with Pemvidutide in Phase 3, with trials starting in 2024. Amgen’s Maritide is in Phase 3, with Phase 2 data expected in 2024. AstraZeneca has AZD5004 in Phase 2b, with trials starting in H2 2024. Two drugs, AZD9550 and AZD6234, are in Phase 1, with data expected in 2024.
Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand jointly develop Survodutide, with Phase 3 data anticipated in late 2025. Pfizer optimizes Danuglipron in Phase 1, with data expected in Q1 2025. Roche works on CT-388 in Phase 2, with Phase 1b data expected in 2024. They also develop CT-996 in Phase 2, starting in 2025. Structure Therapeutics advances GSBR-1290 in Phase 2b, with tablet data expected in late 2025. Terns will start TERN-601 in Phase 2 in 2025. Viking moves forward with VK2735 in Phase 2. Higher dose oral data should arrive in Q4 2024, with Phase 3 injectable starting in 2025. Zealand develops Petrelintide in Phase 2b, with trials starting in 2024. Dapiglutide is in Phase 2b, with data expected in 2024/2025 and trials starting in H1 2025.
Factors Driving the Obesity Drug Market: Increasing Usage and Pricing Challenges Ahead
Analysts project significant market penetration rates for obesity drugs in the coming years. By 2031, they expect 41% of diabetic patients and about 25% of non-diabetic obesity patients in the U.S. will use GLP-1 drugs. This expectation relies on the strong efficacy of these drugs and the likelihood of robust insurance coverage. Furthermore, analysts anticipate that GLP-1 penetration rates will surpass those of other advanced drugs for conditions like psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. However, they predict much lower penetration rates internationally, especially in less developed markets. Limited insurance coverage will likely keep prices high, making these drugs inaccessible for many patients.
In terms of pricing, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly expect to lower their drug prices over the next two years. This strategy aims to expand insurance coverage for a broader range of patients. By 2027 and beyond, analysts expect new market entrants will further accelerate annual pricing declines, pushing prices down by 10% to 15%. Currently, existing GLP-1 drugs have not faced steep pricing declines compared to other diabetes medicines. Nevertheless, recent pricing pressures have emerged, especially after both companies launched a weekly GLP-1 drug. Pricing competition is expected to intensify as new GLP-1 drugs with similar efficacy enter the market.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly advance their next-generation treatments. Novo will launch Cagrisema, while Lilly will release Orforglipron in 2026. New firms may differentiate themselves by offering greater efficacy and better gastrointestinal tolerability. They might also provide more convenient dosing options. The supply chain could give newer players an edge if they offer better availability of their treatments. Despite the increased competition, Novo and Lilly’s pipeline advancements will help them maintain a strong market presence.
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