NASA Says There’s a 1 in 43 Chance an Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Hit Earth in 2032—Should We Worry?

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered on December 27, 2024, has captured global attention due to its potential impact risk. Scientists estimate that this near-Earth object (NEO) measures between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter. The chances of impact have climbed to 2.2–2.3%, up from the 1–1.6% estimates in January 2025—giving it the highest known risk among large NEOs. Its discovery is a stark wake-up call: planetary defense isn’t just sci-fi; it’s a real challenge we need to take seriously. To address the potential threat, physicists, engineers, and biotechnologists are actively developing defense strategies using cutting-edge technology and advanced scientific principles.

How Asteroid 2024 YR4 Became a Top-Ranked Impact Risk

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted on December 27, 2024, two days after it had already made its closest approach to Earth. The ATLAS telescope in Chile captured its movement, but because it approached from the direction of the Sun, astronomers didn’t see it earlier. This late detection made its exact path uncertain at first. However, within days, experts at the Minor Planet Center calculated a potential impact risk for 2032, quickly placing the asteroid at the top of NASA’s Sentry Risk Table and ESA’s Risk List by December 31.

As of February 10, 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4 holds the highest ranking among potential impact threats on NASA’s list. With a Torino Scale rating of 3, it stands out from most other asteroids, which typically have much lower risk levels. Other well-known space rocks, like 1950 DA and Bennu, are also being tracked, but their impact probabilities are significantly lower.

Since January 2025, more than 30 observatories worldwide—from Hawaii to South Africa—have been monitoring 2024 YR4. Each new data point helps refine its predicted path, narrowing the potential impact zone from a broad continental band to a more precise 700-mile stretch. The asteroid will stay visible until early April 2025 before disappearing from view, only to return in June 2028 for further study.

Orbital Mechanics and Astrophysical Analysis

Tracking asteroids isn’t just about pointing telescopes at the sky—it’s a complex science based on physics and constant calculations. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the European Space Agency (ESA) carefully monitor asteroid orbits, using telescopic data and radar to refine their trajectories. These calculations take into account gravitational forces, pressure from sunlight, and even how an asteroid’s own heat emissions can subtly change its course over time.

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will conduct infrared observations in March 2025 to refine size and composition estimates. Meanwhile, powerful ground-based observatories like the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the Arecibo planetary radar will capture detailed images. Once all this data is collected, scientists will run advanced computer simulations—such as Monte Carlo simulations and n-body integrations—to calculate the asteroid’s exact path, its impact probability, and where it might land if it were to hit Earth. The goal? To stay ahead of any potential threats and ensure we’re prepared for whatever comes next.

Impact Energy and Kinetic Modeling

If asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with Earth, its kinetic energy could range from 5 to 30 megatons of TNT, depending on its size and velocity. This energy is comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, which leveled 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest. Researchers use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and hydrocode simulations to model atmospheric entry, fragmentation, and impact effects.

The angle and velocity of impact determine crater formation, shockwave propagation, and potential atmospheric or oceanic disruptions. The Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet impact on Jupiter in 1994 provided valuable data on high-energy planetary collisions. Scientists apply these insights to predict the effects of an Earth impact, considering terrain-dependent damage and airburst phenomena similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor event of 2013.

Planetary Defense Strategies and Technological Innovations

Physicists and engineers have proposed multiple planetary defense strategies, leveraging space technology and physics-based intervention techniques. The two main approaches include kinetic impactors and nuclear deflection.

Kinetic Impactor Missions

NASA proved that we can change an asteroid’s path when its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission demonstrated the kinetic impactor technique, meaning that it successfully hit Dimorphos in 2022, slightly altering its orbit. Now, engineers at NASA and ESA plan to develop a scaled-up version of DART in case asteroid 2024 YR4 needs to be redirected. The kinetic impactor method involves sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid at high velocity, transferring momentum to shift its trajectory. In short, the plan would involve sending a high-speed spacecraft to crash into the asteroid, nudging it off course.

To improve accuracy, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA’s Hera mission team are working on smarter, AI-driven navigation. These systems allow real-time course adjustments, making deflection attempts more precise. Scientists are also exploring the idea of using multiple smaller impactors instead of one large one. By hitting the asteroid in sequence, they could gradually shift its orbit and lower the risk of impact with Earth.

Nuclear Deflection and Energy Redirection

Scientists consider nuclear deflection a last-resort option for large asteroids. This method involves detonating a nuclear device near the asteroid’s surface, causing a portion to vaporize and create a recoil effect that pushes it off course. The theoretical basis derives from radiation pressure and impulse physics, as described in thermonuclear explosion models.

Experts at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) are refining nuclear-based asteroid mitigation techniques. Using advanced simulations with hydrodynamic codes like Spheral and GEANT4, they analyze how the blast affects the asteroid’s structure, how material is ejected, and the risks of fragmentation. Scientists emphasize that delivering just the right amount of energy is crucial—too much force could shatter the asteroid into multiple smaller pieces, creating even more potential impact threats.

Biotechnological Considerations and Space Medicine

Asteroid 2024 YR4’s potential impact raises concerns about biohazards and long-term ecosystem disruptions. Biotechnologists and astrobiologists study microbial survival in extreme environments, considering the possibility that an asteroid impact could alter Earth’s biosphere.

Space agencies collaborate with biotechnological firms to develop countermeasures for potential biological risks. Gene-editing technologies like CRISPR-Cas9 offer adaptive solutions for radiation-resistant crops and accelerated bioremediation in post-impact scenarios. Biotech firms also investigate extremophiles—microorganisms capable of surviving in extreme conditions—to engineer resilient biosynthetic materials that could aid in post-impact recovery efforts.

Additionally, space medicine researchers prepare contingency plans for human survival in high-impact scenarios. Scientists at NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) study how prolonged exposure to space radiation affects human physiology, applying these insights to potential asteroid-induced atmospheric disruptions. Researchers explore synthetic biology solutions, including probiotic treatments and engineered microbiomes, to enhance human resilience in extreme environments.

AI and Robotics in Asteroid Monitoring and Defense

AI-driven automation plays a crucial role in asteroid tracking, impact prediction, and defense operations. Machine learning algorithms process vast astronomical data sets, identifying NEOs with unprecedented accuracy.

Robotic spacecraft equipped with AI-driven navigation and imaging systems enhance asteroid characterization. The ESA’s upcoming NEOMIR (Near-Earth Object Mission in the InfraRed) will use AI to improve early detection, classifying asteroid composition and rotation patterns. AI-enhanced deep-space probes also integrate swarm robotics, enabling coordinated multi-satellite observation campaigns.

Autonomous spacecraft, powered by real-time AI processing, will support planetary defense missions. Engineers at SpaceX and Blue Origin contribute advanced propulsion systems, such as solar-electric propulsion (SEP) and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), to improve spacecraft maneuverability and interception capabilities. These technologies ensure rapid response times in asteroid deflection scenarios.

Keeping an Eye on Asteroid 2024 YR4: No Reason to Panic—Yet

NASA recently shared that as scientists gather more data on asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit, they’ll get a clearer idea of its actual risk of hitting Earth. In many cases, new observations have ruled out potential impacts, and that might happen with this one too.

Right now, 2024 YR4 has a Torino Scale rating of 3—the second-highest any asteroid has ever reached, after Apophis, which briefly hit a 4. Back when Apophis was first discovered in 2004, the risk of it colliding with Earth in 2029 climbed as high as 2.7%. That was enough to grab scientists’ attention. But after years of tracking it more closely, astronomers confirmed in 2021 that it won’t hit Earth in either 2029 or 2036. So, while asteroid 2024 YR4 is getting some attention, history shows that further observations often lower the risk. Scientists are keeping an eye on it, but for now, there’s no reason to panic.

On a positive note, Asteroid 2024 YR4 presents an opportunity to advance physics, biotechnology, and aerospace engineering. Scientists and engineers employ Newtonian mechanics, AI-driven simulations, and nuclear physics to develop planetary defense solutions. Biotechnologists explore genetic and synthetic biology applications for post-impact survival. AI and robotics enhance asteroid tracking and mitigation strategies, ensuring humanity remains prepared for potential threats. As international space agencies continue monitoring 2024 YR4, technological innovation and scientific collaboration will shape the future of planetary defense and space exploration.

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Author

Bernice Lottering