Volcanic Eruptions and Wildfires Identified as Primary Drivers of Stratospheric Water Vapor Increases Since 2005

Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfire events have significantly increased water vapor levels in the stratosphere since 2005. These findings indicate that such events serve as primary drivers of stratospheric moisture, a departure from previous scientific assumptions regarding the mechanisms that influence these atmospheric fluctuations.

Researchers identified these trends by analyzing data collected over the last two decades, noting that both volcanic activity and large-scale wildfires inject moisture into the upper atmosphere. This process alters the chemical composition of the stratosphere and impacts the broader climate system. By documenting these specific events, the study provides new evidence on how terrestrial disturbances influence stratospheric water vapor, which plays a central role in regulating Earth’s climate. The data suggests that these natural and human-influenced events contribute more substantially to stratospheric moisture variability than earlier models accounted for.

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Date: July 2, 2026

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GOAI